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Vestn. YuUrGU. Ser. Vych. Matem. Inform., 2018, Volume 7, Issue 4, Pages 41–58 (Mi vyurv198)  

Geoinfromatics

Preliminary assessment of hydrothermal risks in the Euphrates–Tigris basin: droughts in Iraq

A. S. Alhumaima, S. M. Abdullaev

South Ural State University (pr. Lenina 76, Chelyabinsk, 454080 Russia)

Abstract: This paper presents a temporal and spatial pattern of precipitation, surface air temperature, and drought occurrence in Euphrates-Tigris rivers basin with special emphases on Iraq. Historical records based on 115 years (1900–2014) of monthly precipitation and temperature data has been divided into four sub-periods, each of 30 years (first 1900–1929, second 1930–1959, third 1960-1989 and fourth 1985–2014) and studied separately. The results showed that the mean annual precipitation in Iraq for the four sub-periods is: 218.5, 202.1, 196.4, and 174.9 mm respectively, with an average of 198 mm. This indicates that the mean annual precipitation decreased by 43.6 mm (20 %) in the fourth sub-period compared to the first sub-period. The mean annual temperature for the four sub-periods in Iraq are 22.0, 21.9, 22.0, 22.8 C respectively, with an average of 22.2 C. This indicates that the average monthly temperature during the year in Iraq increased by 0.76 C (3.45 %) in the fourth sub-period compared to the first sub-period. The probability of occurrence of dry (hot) periods in Iraq increased by 345.5 % (147.7 %) in the fourth sub-period compared to the first sub-period. Fortunately, the greatest drought occurrence is observed in western parts of Ira, where agriculture is irrigated, in rain-fed areas in the northern Iraq, there has also been a decrease in precipitation, but not so strong as in the west of the country. A preliminary conclusion about the current climatic desertification and its possible consequences for Iraq was drawn.

Keywords: Euphrates–Tigris rivers basin, Iraq, temperature, precipitation, climate change, Standardized Precipitation Index, z-score.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14529/cmse180403

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UDC: 551.5, 504.38, 004.92
Received: 27.03.2018
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Citation: A. S. Alhumaima, S. M. Abdullaev, “Preliminary assessment of hydrothermal risks in the Euphrates–Tigris basin: droughts in Iraq”, Vestn. YuUrGU. Ser. Vych. Matem. Inform., 7:4 (2018), 41–58

Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{AlhAbd18}
\by A.~S.~Alhumaima, S.~M.~Abdullaev
\paper Preliminary assessment of hydrothermal risks in the Euphrates--Tigris basin: droughts in Iraq
\jour Vestn. YuUrGU. Ser. Vych. Matem. Inform.
\yr 2018
\vol 7
\issue 4
\pages 41--58
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/vyurv198}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.14529/cmse180403}
\elib{https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=36528034}


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  • Vestnik Yuzhno-Ural'skogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriya "Vychislitelnaya Matematika i Informatika"
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