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Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen., 2000, Volume 45, Issue 1, Pages 125–136 (Mi tvp327)  

This article is cited in 10 papers


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Stopping Brownian motion without anticipation as close as possible to its ultimate maximum

S. E. Graversena, G. Peskira, A. N. Shiryaevb

a Institute of Mathematics, University of Aarhus, Denmark
b Steklov Mathematical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

Abstract: Let $B=(B_t)_{0 \le t \le 1}$ be the standard Brownian motion started at 0, and let $S_t=\max_{ 0 \le r \le t} B_r$ for $0 \le t \le 1$. Consider the optimal stopping problem
$$ V_*=\inf_\tau{\mathsf E}(B_\tau-S_1)^2, $$
where the infimum is taken over all stopping times of $B$ satisfying $0 \le \tau \le 1$. We show that the infimum is attained at the stopping time $\tau_*=\inf\{0\le t\le 1\mid S_t-B_t\ge z_*\sqrt{1-t}\}$, where $z_*=1.12 \ldots$ is a unique root of the equation $4\Phi(z_*)-2z_*\varphi(z_*)-3=0$ with $\varphi(x)=(1/\sqrt{2 \pi }) e^{-x^2/2}$ and $ \Phi (x)=\int_{-\infty}^x \varphi(y) dy$. The value $V_*$ equals $2 \Phi (z_*)-1$. The method of proof relies upon a stochastic integral representation of $S_1$, time-change arguments, and the solution of a free-boundary (Stefan) problem.

Keywords: Brownian motion, optimal stopping, anticipation, ultimate maximum, free-boundary (Stefan) problem, Ito–Clark representation theorem, Markov process, diffusion.

Received: 21.10.1999

Language: English

Citation: S. E. Graversen, G. Peskir, A. N. Shiryaev, “Stopping Brownian motion without anticipation as close as possible to its ultimate maximum”, Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen., 45:1 (2000), 125–136

Citation in format AMSBIB:
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\by S.~E.~Graversen, G.~Peskir, A.~N.~Shiryaev
\paper Stopping Brownian motion without anticipation as close as possible to its ultimate maximum
\jour Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen.
\yr 2000
\vol 45
\issue 1
\pages 125--136
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/tvp327}
\mathscinet{http://www.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=1810977}
\zmath{http://www.zentralblatt-math.org/zmath/search/?an=Zbl 0982.60082}
\isi{http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&KeyUT=000167428900003}


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  • http://mi.mathnet.ru/eng/tvp/v45/i1/p125

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    English version:
    Theory of Probability and its Applications, 2001, 45:1, 41–50

    Review databases:
    ISI Web of Knowledge: 000167428900003

    Citing articles on Google Scholar: Russian citations, English citations
    Related articles on Google Scholar: Russian articles, English articles

    This publication is cited in the following articles:
    1. М. А. Урусов, “Об оптимальном прогнозе момента достижения максимума броуновским движением”, УМН, 57:1(343) (2002), 165–166  mathnet  mathscinet  zmath  adsnasa; M. A. Urusov, “Optimal forecasting of the time of attaining the maximum by Brownian motion”, Russian Math. Surveys, 57:1 (2002), 163–164  crossref  isi
    2. А. Н. Ширяев, М. Йор, “К вопросу о стохастических интегральных представлениях функционалов от броуновского движения. I”, ТВП, 48:2 (2003), 375–385  mathnet  mathscinet  zmath; A. N. Shiryaev, M. Yor, “On the problem of stochastic integral representations of functionals of the Brownian motion. I”, Theory Probab. Appl., 48:2 (2004), 304–313  crossref  isi
    3. М. А. Урусов, “Об одном свойстве момента достижения максимума броуновским движением и некоторых задачах оптимальной остановки”, ТВП, 49:1 (2004), 184–190  mathnet  mathscinet  zmath; M. A. Urusov, “On a property of the moment at which Brownian motion attains its maximum and some optimal stopping problems”, Theory Probab. Appl., 49:1 (2005), 169–176  crossref  isi
    4. Renaud J.-F., Remillard B., “Explicit martingale representations for Brownian functionals and applications to option hedging”, STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS, 25:4 (2007), 801–820  crossref  mathscinet  zmath  isi
    5. Du Toit J., Peskir G., “The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum”, ANNALS OF PROBABILITY, 35:1 (2007), 340–365  crossref  mathscinet  zmath  isi
    6. А. Н. Ширяев, “Об условно-экстремальных задачах скорейшего обнаружения непредсказуемых моментов у наблюдаемого броуновского движения”, ТВП, 53:4 (2008), 751–768  mathnet; A. N. Shiryaev, “On Conditional-Extremal Problems of the Quickest Detection of Nonpredictable Times of the Observable Brownian Motion”, Theory Probab. Appl., 53:4 (2009), 663–678  crossref  isi
    7. Shiryaev A., Xu Z., Zhou X.Yu., “Thou shalt buy and hold”, QUANTITATIVE FINANCE, 8:8 (2008), 765–776  crossref  mathscinet  zmath  isi
    8. Fotopoulos S.B., Hu X., Munson C.L., “Flexible supply contracts under price uncertainty”, EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 191:1 (2008), 253–263  crossref  mathscinet  zmath  isi
    9. Rueschendorf L., Urusov M.A., “On a class of optimal stopping problems for diffusions with discontinuous coefficients”, ANNALS OF APPLIED PROBABILITY, 18:3 (2008), 847–878  crossref  mathscinet  zmath  isi
    10. D. V. Belomestny, L. Rüschendorf, M. A. Urusov, “Optimal Stopping of Integral Functionals and a “No-Loss” Free Boundary Formulation”, ТВП, 54:1 (2009), 80–96  mathnet; Theory Probab. Appl., 54:1 (2010), 14–28  crossref  isi
  • Теория вероятностей и ее применения Theory of Probability and its Applications
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