Mathematical modeling of tuberculosis propagation and patient detection

A mathematical model of the spread of tuberculosis taking into account the impact of the antituberculosis programs was considered. The singularity of the proposed model lies in making explicit discrimination between the detected and overlooked patients and taking into account their migration. Studies demonstrated insufficiency of the standard accounting form of the regional Russian antituberculosis institutions. Proposed was a submodel enabling objective estimation of the patient detection system on the basis of individualized database. These estimates corroborated the assumption of a substantial nonuniformity of the Russian regions in terms of tuberculosis morbidity and efficiency of patient detection. For example, the rates of patient detection can differ by the factor of five through six. The model can be used to forecast the tuberculosis morbidity and efficiency of the antituberculosis programs.