Diskretnyi Analiz i Issledovanie Operatsii
RUS  ENG    JOURNALS   PEOPLE   ORGANISATIONS   CONFERENCES   SEMINARS   VIDEO LIBRARY   PACKAGE AMSBIB  
General information
Latest issue
Archive
Impact factor
Guidelines for authors

Search papers
Search references

RSS
Latest issue
Current issues
Archive issues
What is RSS


Diskretn. Anal. Issled. Oper.:
Year:
Volume:
Issue:
Page:
Find




Personal entry:
Login:
Password:
Save password
Enter
Forgotten password?
Register

Diskretnyi Analiz i Issledovanie Operatsii, 2023, Volume 30, Issue 1, Pages 40–66
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33048/daio.2023.30.746 (Mi da1315) 		 
This article is cited in 3 scientific papers (total in 3 papers)

Simulation of COVID-19 propagation scenarios in the Republic of Kazakhstan based on regularization of agent model

O. I. Krivorotkoabc, S. I. Kabanikhinac, M. A. Bektemesovd, M. I. Sosnovskayac, A. V. Neverovbc

a Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, 4 Acad. Koptyug Avenue, 630090 Novosibirsk, Russia
b Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, 6 Acad. Lavrentiev Avenue, 630090 Novosibirsk, Russia
c Novosibirsk State University, 2 Pirogov Street, 630090 Novosibirsk, Russia
d Abai Kazakh National Pedagogical University, 13 Dostyk Avenue, 050010 Almaty, Kazakhstan
Full-text PDF (563 kB) Citations (3)
References:
PDF
HTML
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33048/daio.2023.30.746
Abstract: An algorithm for modeling scenarios for new diagnosed cases of COVID-19 in the Republic of Kazakhstan is proposed. The algorithm is based on the treatment of incomplete epidemiological data and the inverse problem solving for the agent-based model (ABM) using a set of available epidemiological data. The main tool for building the ABM is the open library Covasim. In the event of a sudden change in the situation (appearance of a new strain, removal or introduction of restrictive measures, etc.), the model parameters are updated with additional information for the previous month (data assimilation). The inverse problem was solved by tree Parzen estimates optimization. As an example, two scenarios of COVID-19 propagation are given, calculated on December 12, 2021 for the period up to January 20, 2022. The scenario, which took into account the New Year holidays (published on December 12, 2021 on covid19-modeling.ru), almost coincided with what happened in reality (the error was 0,2%). Tab. 3, illustr. 6, bibliogr. 33.
Keywords: agent oriented model, COVID-19, inverse problem, optimization, regularization, scenario, index of virus reproduction.
Funding agency Grant number
Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation МК-4994.2021.1.1
Russian Foundation for Basic Research 21-51-10003
Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan ИРН АР09260317
This research was supported by the Council for Grants under the President of the Russian Federation, project no. MK-4994.2021.1.1, the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 21-51-10003, and the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan, project no. AP09260317.
Received: 04.07.2022
Revised: 27.09.2022
Accepted: 28.09.2022
English version:
Journal of Applied and Industrial Mathematics, 2023, Volume 17, Issue 1, Pages 94–109
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1990478923010118
Bibliographic databases:
Document Type: Article
UDC: 519.8+518.25
Language: Russian
Citation: O. I. Krivorotko, S. I. Kabanikhin, M. A. Bektemesov, M. I. Sosnovskaya, A. V. Neverov, “Simulation of COVID-19 propagation scenarios in the Republic of Kazakhstan based on regularization of agent model”, Diskretn. Anal. Issled. Oper., 30:1 (2023), 40–66; J. Appl. Industr. Math., 17:1 (2023), 94–109
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{KriKabBek23}
\by O.~I.~Krivorotko, S.~I.~Kabanikhin, M.~A.~Bektemesov, M.~I.~Sosnovskaya, A.~V.~Neverov
\paper Simulation of COVID-19 propagation scenarios in~the Republic of Kazakhstan based~on~regularization of agent model
\jour Diskretn. Anal. Issled. Oper.
\yr 2023
\vol 30
\issue 1
\pages 40--66
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/da1315}
\mathscinet{https://mathscinet.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=4569857}
\transl
\jour J. Appl. Industr. Math.
\yr 2023
\vol 17
\issue 1
\pages 94--109
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.1134/S1990478923010118}
Linking options:
  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/da1315
  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/da/v30/i1/p40
    • This publication is cited in the following 3 articles:
    Citing articles in Google Scholar: Russian citations, English citations
    Related articles in Google Scholar: Russian articles, English articles
    		Дискретный анализ и исследование операций
     
      Contact us:
    		  Terms of Use  Registration to the website  Logotypes © Steklov Mathematical Institute RAS, 2025