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Informatics and Automation, 2021, Issue 20, volume 5, Pages 1065–1089
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15622/20.5.3
(Mi trspy1161)
 

This article is cited in 2 scientific papers (total in 2 papers)

Mathematical Modeling, Numerical Methods

Approach for the COVID-19 epidemic source localization in Russia based on mathematical modeling

V. Osipovab, S. Kuleshovba, A. Zaytsevaab, A. Aksenovba

a SPC RAS
b SPIIRAS
Abstract: The paper presents the results of statistical data from open sources on the development of the COVID-19 epidemic processing and a study сarried out to determine the place and time of its beginning in Russia. An overview of the existing models of the processes of the epidemic development and methods for solving direct and inverse problems of its analysis is given. A model for the development of the COVID-19 epidemic via a transport network of nine Russian cities is proposed: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Khabarovsk and Vladivostok. The cities are selected both by geographic location and by the number of population. The model consists of twenty seven differential equations. An algorithm for reverse analysis of the epidemic model has been developed. The initial data for solving the problem were the data on the population, the intensity of process transitions from one state to another, as well as data on the infection rate of the population at given time moments. The paper also provides the results of a detailed analysis of the solution approaches to modeling the development of epidemics by type of model (basic SEIR model, SIRD model, adaptive behavioral model, modified SEIR models), and by country (in Poland, France, Spain, Greece and others) and an overview of the applications that can be solved using epidemic spread modeling. Additional environmental parameters that affect the modeling of the spread of epidemics and can be taken into account to improve the accuracy of the results are considered. Based on the results of the modeling, the most likely source cities of the epidemic beginning in Russia, as well as the moment of its beginning, have been identified. The reliability of the estimates obtained is largely determined by the reliability of the statistics used on the development of COVID-19 and the available data on transportation network, which are in the public domain.
Keywords: mathematical modeling, COVID-19, inverse analysis problem solution, forecasting, SEIR models, epidemic spread modeling.
Funding agency Grant number
Russian Foundation for Basic Research 20-04-60455
Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation 0073-2019-0005
This research is supported by RFBR (grant 20-04-60455) and by the budget (project no. 0073-2019-0005).
Received: 25.06.2021
Document Type: Article
UDC: 004.942:519.876.5
Language: Russian
Citation: V. Osipov, S. Kuleshov, A. Zaytseva, A. Aksenov, “Approach for the COVID-19 epidemic source localization in Russia based on mathematical modeling”, Informatics and Automation, 20:5 (2021), 1065–1089
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{OsiKulZay21}
\by V.~Osipov, S.~Kuleshov, A.~Zaytseva, A.~Aksenov
\paper Approach for the COVID-19 epidemic source localization in Russia based on mathematical modeling
\jour Informatics and Automation
\yr 2021
\vol 20
\issue 5
\pages 1065--1089
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/trspy1161}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.15622/20.5.3}
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  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/trspy/v20/i5/p1065
  • This publication is cited in the following 2 articles:
    Citing articles in Google Scholar: Russian citations, English citations
    Related articles in Google Scholar: Russian articles, English articles
    Informatics and Automation
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