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Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriya Matematika, Mekhanika, Informatika, 2011, Volume 11, Issue 1, Pages 99–115
(Mi vngu73)
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This article is cited in 1 scientific paper (total in 1 paper)
On Logical Consistency of Probabilistic Predictions
S. O. Speranski Novosibirsk State University
Abstract:
In present paper the statistical ambiguity problem (SAP) is discussed; it was formulated by Carl Hempel and associated with explanations based on inductive-statistical argumentation. In order to eliminate SAP we introduce the formal requirement of maximal specificity (RMS) in terms of logic and probability, and also provide the corresponding prediction scheme. Note that the resultant collection of regularities satisfying RMS is closely related to the construction of semantic probabilistic prediction proposed in companion works of Evgenii Vityaev and the author. We prove that no contradictions may occur while using rms-rules in conjunction with statistically non-negligible sets of available data. In other words, probabilistic theories obtained (inductively) by means of MSR can be viewed as consistent deductive systems.
Keywords:
inductive-statistical explanations and predictions, statistical ambiguity problem, requirement of maximal specificity, probabilistic theory, inductive logic, consistency.
Received: 21.11.2009
Citation:
S. O. Speranski, “On Logical Consistency of Probabilistic Predictions”, Vestn. Novosib. Gos. Univ., Ser. Mat. Mekh. Inform., 11:1 (2011), 99–115
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https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vngu73 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vngu/v11/i1/p99
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Abstract page: | 313 | Full-text PDF : | 171 | References: | 57 | First page: | 1 |
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